Argentina v Austria World Cup 2026 Odds: Can Messi Break the Record?

Some matches you bet; some you watch for history. Argentina v Austria (3:00am AEST, Tuesday) is both. Lionel Messi, at 38, sits one goal short of Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup record of 16 — which he just equalled with a hat-trick. My job is to separate the romance from the value. Figures current as at 22 June 2026.

Argentina v Austria: Messi can become the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.

Messi needs one goal to pass Klose’s record of 16 World Cup goals — though sources disagree on whether it’s 17 or 18 after his previous match (ESPN vs CBS).
Argentina 1.58 to win offers no real value; the anytime-scorer markets are where this match comes alive.
Austria held their own against Algeria in the opener — do not assume a walkover for Scaloni’s side.
My pick: Messi anytime scorer at around 1.80 — head-and-heart play, but the price is fair. My Rating: 8/10.

The state of play

Argentina arrive on eight straight wins and a flawless five-from-five recent run after the 3-0 dismantling of Algeria. Messi’s hamstring is fine, Cristian Romero is available and Nahuel Molina returns; only Gonzalo Montiel is in doubt. Models have the holders around 65% to win. Full team read on my Argentina betting analysis.

Don’t write Austria off

Ralf Rangnick’s Austria aren’t here to make up numbers — four wins and a draw in their last five, and a 3-1 opening defeat of Jordan. They’ve lost Baumgartner for the tournament but have David Alaba back, and the skipper isn’t buying the underdog tag:

"We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi, but also what they’re capable of as a team"

— David Alaba, Austria captain (Al Jazeera, 21 June 2026)

For what it’s worth, Austria have never lost to Argentina in two prior meetings (5-1 in 1980, 1-1 in 1990). Trivia, not a trend — but I note it.

My odds opinion

Prices (as at 22 June): Argentina 1.58, draw 3.65, Austria 5.38. At 1.58 the head-to-head is dead money for mine. The play that fits the night is Messi anytime scorer — a record on home-leaning turf against a thinned-out Austrian midfield is the kind of script that writes itself. On the outright, Argentina have shortened to 9.00 after the Messi treble; the full board is on the Odds Guide.

Expert Verdict

Worked example: A $30 play on Messi anytime scorer at 1.80 returns $54 (stake included). Implied probability: ~55.6%. Compare across WinRolla and BillyBets for the best AU-available line before kick-off.

My pick: Messi anytime scorer. My Rating: 8/10. What I’d avoid: the 1.58 win line — no value, all risk. This one’s a head-and-heart play, so set the stake first. It headlines my best bets for 22 June. Odds in AUD — check lines at WinRolla or BillyBets for AU-friendly decimal prices. Online in-play betting isn’t permitted in Australia. Gamble responsibly, 18+.

Can Messi break the World Cup goal record against Austria?

Yes. He has equalled Klose’s record of 16 World Cup goals; one more against Austria would make him the outright record-holder.

What are the odds for Argentina v Austria?

As at 22 June 2026: Argentina 1.58, the draw 3.65, Austria 5.38 in decimal odds.

What time is Argentina v Austria in Australia?

3:00am AEST on Tuesday 23 June 2026.

Odds as at 20–22 June 2026 (decimal, sources: ESPN, FOX Sports, FanDuel). Ratings are my opinion. Online in-play betting is not permitted in Australia. Gamble responsibly — 18+.